Justin Bieber attends the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards at Microsoft Theater on August 30, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. 
"This world is bullshit," declared Fiona Apple in 1997 during one of the most alarmingly frank moments of the VMAs — and awards show history, really. Nearly a decade and a half later, the words she spoke at that podium still matter.
And hey, maybe Justin Bieber, would go on stage and quote Maya Angelou if he takes home a moon man on Sunday night, but his silence would say a lot more.
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Before Justin Bieber threatened to delete his Instagram account and then actually followed through on the promise, he used the platform to disavow awards shows following a less-than-stellar time at the Billboard Music Awards.
"I don't feel good when I'm there nor after. I try to think of it as a celebration but can't help feeling like people are rating and grading my performance," he wrote. "A lot of people in the audience there to be seem worried about how much camera time they will get or who they can network with."
While Apple's statement was a commentary on mankind as a whole, Bieber's context was specific.
For the past year, Bieber has been making a clear effort to remove himself from situations that threaten his mental health, which is pretty fragile likely on account of growing up under such bizarre circumstances. This means instigating a no-photos policy with fans, among other self-preservation methods that invariably come off to many as ungrateful and bratty. But Bieber remains admirably vigilant. We all know what happens when celebrities, particularly those that found fame at a young age, don't take proper precautions to escape the madness. And he's making an effort to avoid the fates of some of his predecessors.
Bieber's performance at last year's VMAs was a perfect debut of nü Bieber. He soared through the air and the whole thing ended in tears. But Bieber's not currently slated to sing at this year's ceremonies.
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He is nominated for three VMAs this year, though: Video of the Year, Best Pop Video and Best Long Form video.
Bieber released videos for each of the songs off his best album yet, Purpose, and two videos for some singles. As videos, most are merely adequate: his music is a more effective statement of his artistry without the visuals. And they're certainly not as provocative as his competitors like Kanye West's "Famous" or a couple of the best videos of all time, Beyoncé's "Formation" and "Hold Up."
Still, MTV allows fans to vote for the awards, so the Beliebers may come through and help him win.
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Bieber's best effort doesn't feature the star at all, but rather a crew of dancers ecstatically giving life to the ear worm that is "Sorry." His absence is actually part of what makes the video so great. The video, however, isn't nominated for Best Choreography.
This brings us to the big controversy that loomed over last year's VMAs. Nicki Minaj was upset that her videos, and videos by women of color in general, were fighting for recognition even when as ubiquitous as "Anaconda" was in 2015. One of her primary points of contention was the video's snub in the Best Choreography category. To Minaj, awards shows do matter, or at least they can.
Taylor Swift inevitably made Minaj's comment about Taylor Swift, and the whole thing escalated until the women, in a flurry of feathers and crystals, opened the show together as a peace offering. Miley Cyrus got involved, too — what's good? Later, Swift presented the Video Vanguard award to her "friend" Kanye West.
Swift's performative friendships are exactly the sort of thing Justin Bieber's trying to avoid and can avoid by sitting out situations he already knows are bad for him.
Unlike Minaj, Bieber's not fighting for representation: straight white men, you may recall, have plenty of that. He's fighting for peace of mind, which is not something he'll find at the VMAs.
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